Thursday Night Football TOuchdown Scorer PROP SPECIAL
Kick-off the Season with four ANY-TIME TD Scorers for HOU@KC
By: Jason Sarney
It is here, ladies and gentlemen! Christmas Eve in September! The night before the Thursday kick-off to an NFL season is the time of merriment as well as publication of the first proposition bet lines.
The Prop Wager is something I am very familiar with and tend to gravitate to. Kind of like how Santa heads towards those warm cookies on his night of giving, please allow me to sprinkle a little seasonal cheer on your opening night.
As I will be doing with my guy, Scott Simpson of Nimble with Numbers as season long, I will lay out several plays PER GAME in which we will use the following gambling and wagering vernacular.
https://youtu.be/zsuTpS3yl84 (FULL SEASON PLAYS)
We are tossing the “unit,” as it is so 2019. We are replacing it with the following:
Nickel =$5
Dime = $10
Quarter = $25
Benjamin = $100
The goal is to find the combos of minimal risk, high yield plays, in which even a few losses could lead to profitability if one “long-shot” hits.
To start the season, I am allotting myself 1 Full Benjamin to spread out in the “Any Time Touchdown Scorer Market” for tomorrow’s Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs opener.
So, let us play that Benjamin across four potential TD scorers I like. Before anything, let us get the elephant in the locker room out of the way and that is the Covid-19 mess and the lack of pre-season games and overall hard-hitting practices.
There will be missed tackles.
Sure, offensive timing and line play may counter that, but I do expect these offenses to get at least a trio of scores each, or at least four for the defending Champs and a pair for the visitors.
Having said that, the guys like Travis Kelce and Clyde Edwards-Helaire have unfavorable odds for profit-margin at (-134) and (-175) respectively.
Until there is at least a week of data, I am not really loving dipping deep into funds for odds that require you to lay too much down.
The idea is to make a slow seasonal build. We start with 1 Benjamin in 2020.
Where will we be in 17 Weeks? Let’s start building.
Tyreek Hill (-115) TD scorer
Hill and Kelce are the safest bets for Patrick Mahomes to find, and with the magic TD number being 3, its safe to lay a few dimes on Hill. Chances are, Mahomes toss a dime of his own to the speedy wide-out, as Hill could score on any touch. It would not shock me if he puts up a pair of scores, as a healthy Hill and Mahomes is one of the most lethal duos in the game.
LAYING = 3 dimes for $30
PAYS = $26
Mecole Hardman (+120) TD scorer
Now this is more my language. A double-up-plus of funds on a guy who, like Hill, is a deep-ball threat. Not only is there hype out of Chiefs camp on a positive surge in year two, Hardman had a gaudy 20.7 yard per catch average as a rookie. Six touchdowns on 26 receptions is an insane ratio, so look for Hardman to cross the goal line. If both Hardman and Hill get in, you already are essentially even with four plays to go.
Flipping over to the Texans, there are several receivers who are potential home-run hitting targets for DeShaun Watson. We will begin with the likeliest in my opinion for any Texans score.
LAYING 3 dimes for $30
PAYS = $66
Will Fuller (+190) TD Scorer
This is a close to double-up play for the Texans leading receiver to cross the goal-line. Now that he takes the reigns as number one receiver now that DeAndre Hopkins is in Arizona, Fuller will likely lead the Texans in targets.
With 71 targets in 11 games last season, you can imagine that number will at least hit 103 if his per game average stays the same and he is healthy all season.
Regardless of a 17-week outcome, Thursday night is prime-time for the teams, as well as profitability in the Fuller market.
LAYING = 2 dimes for $20
PAYS = $38
David Johnson (+120) TD Scorer
Speaking of Hopkins, David Johnson was the Cardinal part of the compensation package, so he becomes the lead man in the Houston backfield.
When looking at David Johnson's career it is a consistent roller-coaster. That sounds odd. Let me explain. As a rookie, he played in five games and was beastly. A full 2016 saw the same, and a Pro-Bowl outcome. Then was a 1-game performance due to injury for all of 207.
2018 was a full season, but lackluster production, moving to a 3.6 yard per carry average as opposed to his rookie mark of 4.6 and career 4.0 number.
2019 was a tad of a run in the right direction with 13 appearances but again, not a ton of weekly reliability for fantasy players of bettors.
However, the touchdown department has always been solid for him, scoring 48 times total in his 62 games played across five seasons.
When we know a healthy David Johnson is on the field, is when we bet that he scores.
LAYING 2 dimes for $20
PAYS = $24
*Word to the wise wager’ers…. Stack that Hill TD play with this:
Tyreek Hill OVER 70.5 receiving yards.
(Smash it)
And lastly – Hill at a pair of scores is +400.
A NICKEL($5) on that PAYS $20.
You can follow Jason on twitter @OrangeAquaman and on YouTube on The Prop Profit$ PodCast with Scott Simpson.
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By: Jason Sarney
After months of speculation, guessing, predictions and false rumors, the 53-man Miami Dolphin roster is built…for now. The NFL had a deadline to trim rosters, and after a flurry of moves both cuts and trades, the 2020 Miami Dolphin roster is set, with a young team full of sub-25-year-olds who are hungry to show their talent.
Perhaps the shock of is all was the finality of Josh Rosen’s career in Miami, which many speculated would result in a trade. While no NFL suitor bit on Miami’s offering, the former top-10 quarterback pick from two draft’s ago was released and will now look for his third NFL team in as many seasons.
Another surprise, but more on the pleasant variety, was the shocking acquisition of rookie do-it-all star, Lynn Bowden Jr. out of Kentucky. The 80th overall pick in April’s NFL Draft joins a Miami offense of versatile threats on the ground and in the air, as Bowden can do both. Bowden was the recipient of the Paul Hornung Award in 2019 which is awarded to the NCAA’s most versatile player. As a player who caught, ran, threw, and returned…this award fit the Wildcat like a glove.
Wildcat.
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WR2 Theory: Hello!! Anybody Home?
Scott Simpson of Nimble w/ Numbers breaks down an EXCELLENT WR theory that can help you find gems late, and win leagues early!
PREVIEW:
My Process
I began by pouring over the last 5 seasons of WR ADP data and then compared it to where WRs finished at the end of the fantasy season. I then filtered that data through the vacated targets tool created each year by John Daigle from Rotoworld in order to see if there was a correlation between breakout WRs and vacated targets.
Next, I studied the team-specific factors and circumstances to identify and document the conditions that led to the shift in the WR value for each individual team. Finally, I created criteria for success that incorporated all of the key data points and then used it determine WR2 breakout candidates for 2020. WR2 Theory had been born.
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By: Jason Sarney
The NFL’s third leading rusher since 2016 sat down with South Florida media Thursday afternoon to discuss his first training camp with his new Miami Dolphin teammates. That player, believe it or not, is Jordan Howard who is behind only Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley over the last four season in running back ground yards.
Howard comes to Miami having already familiarizing himself with the South Florida heat, thanks to training there in prior off-seasons, so he looks forward to using that to an advantage this year.
“Yea I used to train down here; practicing here in this heat is much different,” Howard said. “I know the advantages training down here.”
Entering his fifth season and third with the team Howard was a Pro -Bowler as a rookie and has put together a career 4.3 yards per carry average which is a far cry from last season's overall running back output of 3.3 yards per carry for the year.
www.NimblewNumbers.com
A boy chasing a football in the backyard with his dad. A teenager chasing the ball on the high school gridiron. A 20 something chasing a football at the Thanksgiving Turkey Bowl. A 30 something chasing fantasy football championships. A 40 something chasing the dream of becoming a fantasy football analyst chasing the DFS Milly Maker.
Outstanding analytics, humor behind the work and a terrific man in the Fantasy Community. Nimblewnumbers.com
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